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Bangladesh’s Services Trade and RCEP Accession

This paper assesses Bangladesh’s readiness to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) from the perspective of services trade. In Bangladesh, services exports have grown rapidly but remain narrow in scope and overshadowed by rising imports, leading to persistent deficits. RCEP countries account for a substantial share of Bangladesh’s services trade. While Bangladesh demonstrates competitiveness in construction and professional services, it lags in ICT, transport, and travel services.


Sri Lanka’s Services Trade and RCEP Accession

This paper evaluates Sri Lanka’s readiness to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), with a focus on services trade. Services exports have grown moderately since 2015, led by travel, transport, and business process outsourcing, while imports have contracted, resulting in a services trade surplus by 2023. Revealed comparative advantage analysis shows clear strengths in travel, transport, construction, and other business services, but persistent weaknesses in ICT, financial, and intellectual property services.


How important is human capital for services exports? Evidence from South Asia

Over the last three decades, South Asian economies have shown a continued upsurge in services exports, contributing to their external sector stability and economic growth. In this context, we examine the role of human capital in boosting services exports and revisit the other determinants of services exports by employing data from India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2022. The findings reveal that human capital is a significant determinant of service exports. In addition, endowment factors such as financial and institutional development, telecom networks, broadband connections, and the quality of physical capital, along with other macroeconomic factors, are significant contributors to services exports. Our study distinctively establishes the role of human capital in augmenting services exports from the South Asian region. Removing supply-side bottlenecks in education, quality infrastructure, institutional governance, and broadband tele density, among others, to increase the competitiveness of the region’s service exports.

E-commerce in Trade Agreements: India’s Strategies and Options

The e-commerce sector is rapidly growing globally with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 58 per cent of global retail e-commerce in 2022, and India, Singapore, China, and Japan leading this growth. The discussion on e-commerce and trade at the global level began in 1998 with the establishment of the Working Programme on E-commerce (WPEC) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), under which members agreed to a moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions. Progress on broader e-commerce trade rules within WPEC has been slow, which prompted the creation of the Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on E-commerce in 2019. On July 26, 2024, 80 member countries reached a consensus on trade rules in a “stabilized text.” Simultaneously, many nations have pursued standalone digital trade agreements or included digital trade chapters in broader trade agreements. India has not joined the JSI and opposes a permanent moratorium, citing evolving definitions of e-commerce and potential tariff revenue losses for developing countries. However, India has signed an agreement with a digital trade chapter with the United Arab Emirates and is negotiating similar chapters with other important trade partners. Given this background, the paper presents the discussions on e-commerce in the WPEC and the JSI. It presents India’s position in the WTO and trade agreements, its concerns, domestic regime and negotiating strategies and options. It provides data driven analysis of the impact of the moratorium on India’s e-commerce trade and suggests why digital taxation may be better than a tariff for revenue collection. It compares India’s autonomous regime (AR) with JSI obligations. It analyses trade agreements across parameters related to cross-border e-commerce trade, with a focus on agreements in the APAC region, in terms of their scope, coverage and depth of commitments. The paper concludes by providing a roadmap to move forward with discussions in the JSI and recommendations for India to find its stand in global negotiations.

Towards greater regulatory co-operation in the Asia-Pacific for boosting e-commerce trade

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which accounts for over 50 per cent of the world’s population and over 35 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), is one of the fastest growing regions in the world. The region is growing at higher than the global growth rate and is expected to continue on a high growth trajectory. With high economic growth, the APAC region has become the largest e-commerce market in the world.


Partial and general equilibrium impacts of trade digitalization using structural gravity model

The study estimates partial and general equilibrium impacts of trade digitalization on trade flows using data from the UN Trade Digitalization Index (TDI) 2024 and a structural gravity model. This approach, unlike earlier gravity model studies on the topic, allows for the derivation of both trade and welfare effects associated with trade digitalization. Estimated partial equilibrium effects suggest that a 10 percent increase in trade digitalization may increase trade flows by approximately 8 percent globally. Based on the gravity model estimates, a general equilibrium model is constructed.


Riding the Dragon: Ascent of China's Renminbi and the Decline of Dollar Dominance

Several commentaries are written about de-dollarization. We analyze the factors which are contributing to de-dollarization and provide an alternative assessment. On the economic front, the US economy's reduced fiscal and financial capacity can strain economic trust in the dollar. The internationalization of the Chinese currency is another factor. Additionally, a lower forecast for the world economic growth outlook, a higher debt financing in the US and a war in Europe are also leading to central banks around the world buying more gold and reducing investment in the US treasury bonds.



How does digital trade impact women traders?

This paper explores the potential opportunities and challenges digital trade poses for women traders globally and in Asia-Pacific. This paper highlights policy areas using a gendered approach to digital trade. Given the varied and interrelated issues, a public-private-societal effort is needed to help women traders. A mixed methods research approach to conduct situation analysis is used in this paper. It predominantly reviews existing literature, supported by descriptive statistics.


Does Internet expansion matter for export concentration?

Why do export sales increasingly concentrate among a few “superstars”? This paper is the first to argue that the expansion of the Internet matters for this phenomenon. Using firm-level customs transaction data from 11 developing countries, we show that the spread of the internet steepens the slope of the rank-sales relationship among exporters. This shift implies a more skewed distribution of sales toward the top exporters. Furthermore, incumbent superstar exporters are more likely to retain their status owing to a better Internet.